The Hugh Jackman family-friendly film The Sheep Detectives is having a tough time at the box office despite getting rave reviews from critics and audiences. Blending CGI with live-action in a similar fashion to Babe, the mystery-comedy stars Hugh Jackman as shepherd George Hardy who is murdered in the village of Denbrook and whose case is pursued by his flock of sheep. The movie is an adaptation of the 2005 Leonie Swann novel “Three Bags Full,” which received positive reviews for its originality in the trope-laden detective genre. Releasing in US theaters on May 8, The Sheep Detectives has earned a fantastic 94% critics rating and 96% audience rating on Rotten Tomatoes, yet the film might not be a box office success by the end of its run.
The Sheep Detectives may not break even at the box office
As of May 26, The Sheep Detectives has amassed a total of $86 million at the worldwide box office, with $47.3 million coming domestically and $38.8 million coming internationally, per Box Office Mojo.
While this box office haul is strong for a film that’s been in theaters for three weeks, the trouble is that it has a high production budget of $75 million, according to Variety. The general guideline for wide-release films is that they need to make around 2.5 times its budget to break even, so The Sheep Detectives is hoping to cross the $188 million mark to make a profit. Given its current total and the fact that it earned about $9 million domestically over its third weekend, the film could get close to that milestone, but it doesn’t have that much time to do so with the heavy competition in the summer theatrical calendar.
Case in point, The Sheep Detectives came out only one week after The Devil Wears Prada 2 (May 1) and two weeks after Michael (June 24). While these two blockbusters are not in the same genre as the mystery comedy, both have crossed the $600 million mark. Their appeal to family-friendly audiences and casual moviegoers have slowed the momentum of every other theatrical release within their orbit, including The Sheep Detectives. More than that, the film has had to compete with Mortal Kombat 2 (May 8), the surprise horror hit Obsession (May 15), and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu (May 22).
Another reason for the movie’s struggles is due to particular mix of live-action and CGI. Apart from the Pokémon and Sonic the Hedgehog movies, which have greater brand recognition and a wider fanbase, other films in the genre have struggled to break even. 2021’s Clifford the Big Red Dog had a $64 million budget but only earned $107.4 million ($160 million break-even point), 2022’s Lyle, Lye, Crocodile had $50 million budget but only made $111 million ($125 million break-even point), and 2024’s IF had a $110 million budget but made $190.3 million ($275 million break-even point).
Given the pattern, it was expected that The Sheep Detectives would need to fight for its place at the box office. One long-range forecast for the movie from BoxOffice Pro projected that it would only make $10 million to $20 million in its domestic opener (the film went on to get $15 million). Its prediction was “on the low side” due to “the source material’s relatively low profile and Amazon MGM’s new-kid-on-the-block status as a theatrical distributor.”
The Sheep Detectives was originally titled “Three Bags Full: A Sheep Detective Movie” but was shortened later. The movie is quite different and much darker than the book, where the sheep are much more scared interacting with humans and the circumstances surrounding George’s death are, let’s just say, not as family-friendly.
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